Analyze the major causes of instability

Security must be developed on the basis of meeting human needs as well as countering extremism, terrorism, and violence. Success — if it comes at all — occurs over years of effort and almost inevitably after those who start a revolution are no longer in power.

Causes of middle east crisis

Finally, the data and risk assessments provide a further warning that countries, intelligence experts, members of international institutions, NGOs, and area experts need to do a far better job of developing basic data on the causes of instability. The new risk assessment model used in this report does, however, cover a wide range of variable and trends for every country that is based on different sources of data, and highlights the trends that are not dependent on politics, diplomacy, or conflict. It is sometimes possible to track trends over the last year of political unrest for key countries like Egypt, but far too many undefined estimates of uncertain reliability are surfacing in media and other sources. This is important because nation-wide trends like GDP growth and GDP per capita have value, but can show progress that is misleading in regard to their real world impact on most of the population, and on pressures and perceptions that shape the actions of key elements of the population. None of the proper conditions exist in many states, however, and political revolution will be the only road to stability in the others. Security must be developed on the basis of meeting human needs as well as countering extremism, terrorism, and violence. As events over the last year have also shown, political upheavals often act to make many problems worse in the short run. The Analytic Focus of Volume One and Volume Two The region-wide data in Volume One of the report, and the country-by-country data in Volume Two, show that a focus on politics and violence, and on issues like terrorism and religion, sharply understates the full range of forces at work and the time and effort needed to correct key problems. The UNAHDRs warned that these factors were compounding on a pre-existing agitation over a lack of freedom to threaten regional stability, and create significant challenges to given countries. It is also important to note that no one source or organization clearly emerges as reliable in reporting on any key parameter that is currently being measured. Burke Chair in Strategy Abdullah Toukan. They create sets of growing pressures that meant even one catalyst could trigger a regional response. These discrepancies challenge much of the single point analysis used by the US government, some UN agencies, and key international organizations like the World Bank and IMF.

The new risk assessment model used in this report does, however, cover a wide range of variable and trends for every country that is based on different sources of data, and highlights the trends that are not dependent on politics, diplomacy, or conflict.

The reality is that far too many past revolutions failed to meet the hopes of the moderates and reformers that began them or serve the people they are meant to help.

why is there a war in the middle east

The effort to gather the data in the charts and tables in Volume One and Volume Two also show the need for far better international statistical standardization. More broadly, politics -- and sometimes violence -- are the driving variables in times of acute political instability and unrest.

root causes of political instability in middle east

The UN Arab Human Development Reports UNAHDR began to warn over a decade ago that the region faced critical demographic pressures, failures in economic development, and a combination of challenges related to income distribution, deep problems with corruption, nepotism, and discrimination.

The causes of unrest are deep, complex, and involve structural problems in governance, demographics, and economics.

Such scores and rankings can still be useful in flagging key issues, but all such rankings must be used with extreme caution and none can be called authoritative.

how does western interference lead to tension and conflict in the middle east
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Macroeconomic instability: its causes and consequences for the economy of Ukraine